The most popular and talked about betting market in case of football games is 1X2, however, do you think it’s also the best choice in terms of value? Popularly referred to as draw no bet, double chance bets often prove to be more profitable alternatives compared to the conventional three-way markets. Let’s find out how sports bettors can employ the 1X2 odds for placement of wagers as double chance, in order to book higher profits.
What is meant by double chance in sports betting?
Also popularly referred to as draw no bet, in essence, the double chance bets provide an option to the sports bettor to place a wager on two different outcomes of the game, eventually doing away with the third option. So these bets enable you to back either the home team and the possibility of a draw or the visiting team and the possibility of draw.
At a large number of bookmakers, a +0.5 handicap normally works perfectly well as a double chance bet. However, what do you think would happen when the bookmaker isn’t offering 0.5 and 0 handicaps in a particular game that you are keenly interested in betting on?
Calculating the odds of double chance bets
It has been established through regular double chance betting that normally two out of three probable outcomes ensure that the bet is actually successful. Resultantly, the offered odds are normally quite lower compared to the straight 1X2 betting odds.
Please keep in mind that understanding the calculation of double chance odds and stakes on 1X2 market enables sports bettors to locate and derive higher value from the sports betting odds.
Let’s understand this better with the help of an example.
Let’s say you are heavily backing Manchester United to beat Tottenham. The offered odds for this particular outcome are 1.971, however, you are also of the opinion that Tottenham has a good chance of upsetting the favourites (and the odds) and securing a draw. But your bookmaker isn’t offering Tottenham at 0.5 on handicap, which will allow you to avail that option. There are other bookmakers nevertheless who are offering odds of 1.25 on Tottenham to draw or win. What do you think - is that a better value bet compared to the one you’re getting at your regular bookmaker?
The offered odds for the possibility of a draw are 3.880, and you don’t mind risking your £ 100 on this bet. It is recommended that sports bettors must use a part of their £ 100 amount for betting on a MU win, and the leftover amount for betting on the possibility of a draw. Of course, only one of your bets will win, but the idea is to book the same amount of profit in both the cases.
For the purpose of this particular example, we’ll label the bet amount placed on Manchester United win as M. The bets placed on the possibility of a draw will therefore be £ 100 – M. In the event that MU does score a win, the sports bettor will bag 0.971 x M from that particular bet (0.971 is arrived at from 1.971 – 1). The calculation for profit amount is:
Bet amount x (decimal odds – 1)
The sports bettor loses the bet in case of a draw, which was (100 – M)
Hence, the total profit made would be:
0.971 x M – (100 – M)
In case the game ends up in a draw, the draw’s calculation would result in the sports bettor winning 2.88 x (100 – M) from bet placed on draw. As a result, the net profit would be:
2.88 x (100 – M) – M
As also mentioned earlier, the idea is to have both the profits as equal. Therefore:
0.971 x M – (100 – M) = 2.88 x (100 – M) – M
The above-provided simple equation results in the value of M coming out to £ 66.31. It implies that we must bet £ 66.31 on the possibility of a Manchester United win, and £ 33.69 (that is 100 - 66.31) on the possibility of a draw.
Hence, if Manchester United does go on to win, the bettor would earn (1.971 – 1) x 66.31 = £ 64.39, losing £ 33.69 on the amount bet on the possibility of, thereby making a £ 30.70 net profit.
In the event that the game ends up in a draw, the sports bettor would bag (3.88 – 1) x 33.69 = £ 97.03, losing £ 66.31 on the bet placed on MU win, thereby taking home an overall £ 30.72 net profit, the closest it can be to the other figure (after rounding).
In case you had gone for a double chance bet at any other bookmaker, you would have ended up with a minimum £ 5 negative difference, which actually is 16% of the profit.
Your Bookmaker / Draw / MU to Win
Bet amount / £ 33.69 / £ 66.31
Betting Odds / 3.88 / 1.971
Scored Profit / £ 30.72 / £ 30.70
Other Bookmaker / MU to Draw or Win
Bet Amount / £ 100
Betting Odds / 1.25
Scored Profit / £ 25
Calculation of double chance bet amounts
You can work out a general rule of thumb for calculation of double chance bet amounts using the above example. If we choose to label the amount that sports bettors want to risk as TO, the odds applicable to a home win as HO and the odds are applicable to the possibility of a draw as DR, the calculation would be like:
Bet amount placed on a home win = DR x TO / (DR + HO)
Bet amount placed on a draw = TO – Bet amount placed on home win
In case you are only interested in comparing the odds, you must divide the return with the bet amount to arrive at the effective decimal odds.
Using the example above, £ 100 bet amount would deliver £ 130.70 in total (the profit component being £ 30.70), and hence, the decimal odds would be:
130.70 / 100 = 1.307
The calculation of effective odds can be done using the formula worked out from the above equations:
The return from the bet placed on home win would be:
HO x DR x TO / (DR + HO)
Dividing the return with TO, the odds would come out to be:
Effective odds = DR x HO / (DR + HO)
We can work out the equations applicable to the other double chance markets (away win or home win AND away win or draw), wherein AW stands for the odds applicable to away win as follows:
Away win or Draw:
– Bet amount on away win = DR x TO / (DR + AW)
– Bet amount on draw = TO – Bet amount on away win
– Effective odds = DR x AW / (DR + AW)
For Away win or Home win:
– Bet amount on home win = AW x TO / (AW + HO)
– Bet amount on away win = TO – Bet amount on home win
– Effective odds = HO x AW / (HO + AW)
It’s important that sports bettors equip themselves with the maximum ammunition possible to ensure that they get the maximum value from their sports bets. Learning the calculation of double chance odds and bets on 1X2 market can allow you to figure out where the best value exists, providing you an alternative to double chance bet placements at other bookmakers or exchanges.