Professional sports bettors and bookmakers both make extensive use of betting prediction models for ensuring their profits in the various sports betting and gambling markets. Regardless of whatever sports betting model is used, you should keep in mind that a prediction is normally never a prophecy, as it’s vulnerable to errors. How do you think can sports bettors spot errors more efficiently in such prediction models, and exploit them successfully? Let’s find out.
As an allegory, let’s carry out a study on one of those shape sorting cubes that you may see toddlers playing with often. These are the kinds wherein we need to pass a correct shape into a hole. Passing the correct shape is a representation of making a correct prediction, however, unlike the other cubes that these toddlers have in their hands, the number of different possibilities are pretty large.
Selecting the wrong model or shape
The first probable error a toddler may make is fitting in a completely wrong shape. A triangle can possibly be fitted into a square if one tries really hard, or perhaps if the triangle is much smaller. However, it still doesn’t make it the right fit.
It can be considered equivalent to employing the wrong sports betting model for that specific purpose. For instance, even though the normal distribution may seem to be a pretty good fit to the goal differences, that cannot be the ideal predictor when it comes to the goals scored by the home team.
Considering the great multitude of potential sports betting models that are available in the marketplace, the chances are high that the perfect fit may actually not be in regular use or in worst cases may not be available at all. The sports betting models are actually the required simplifications of real-life scenarios and hence are bound and prone to be incorrect at times. One of the ways in which you can diminish the chances of this happening is by application of judgement in selection and interpretation of a sports betting model, apart from fitting that model to your old data.
Selecting the wrong parameter or size
Returning back to that analogy of shape sorting cubes, the toddler may pick the correct shape, but it may not be of the right size. For instance, he/she may pick a completely wrong sized square.
In the scenario of a model building activity, this can be considered equivalent to employing the wrong parameters. Think about a scenario wherein your main aim is calculation of the number of goals that may be scored in a specific football match. Although it may be alright to use the Poisson Distribution model for this purpose, but what if one of the teams had recently scored a thumping 8 – 0 win. Obviously, that win would lead to distortion of the mean number of scored goals, making that parameter useless.
You’ll need to use your fair judgement in such a scenario and pay more attention to standard deviation in the employed parameters.
About the process error
Lastly, the toddler may have selected the right size and shape in that shape sorting cube example, however, the chances are high that every shape may fluctuate in terms of its size with time, owing to slight production differences and constant wear and tear.
Talking about this phenomenon in an environment of sports prediction, we can say that not all outcomes are replicable. If the teams were to replay the Super Bowl final of this year or any of the previous years, under the exactly same conditions, over and over again, the chances are high that the result won’t always be the same, owing to the natural fluctuations.
Notwithstanding, once you’ve selected the right parameters and model, you’ll always witness a certain amount of natural volatility in the results (and this can even be measured). You’ll get the best predictions in scenarios where you have availability of more relevant data – The exact reason why a large number of sports bettors find it easy to predict English Premier League football games than predicting the World Cup matches.
It is a proven fact that betting syndicates, private individuals and betting companies all make errors when it comes to predictions. The actual skill lies in application of judgement in a manner that you can benefit from the errors made by the other parties.
Additionally, apart from constantly looking for valuable advice and information, sports bettors must always seek the best betting odds, which portals like Bet365 are quite famous for.